ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
17-15 | Road
136
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
7-24 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
HAWKS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
27.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
20.7%
TOR By 1-7 points
21.1%
TOR By 8-14 points
10.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
118.2
ATLANTA
Toronto
114.85
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Toronto
118
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.4
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 233.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 5, 2026
ATL @ TOR
100 - 118
Jan 3, 2026
ATL @ TOR
117 - 134
Nov 7, 2025
TOR @ ATL
109 - 97
Oct 22, 2025
TOR @ ATL
138 - 118
Jan 25, 2025
TOR @ ATL
117 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+21.0% more
Atlanta: 9.5
vs
Toronto: 7.5
Blocks (L5)
+19.4% more
Atlanta: 4.3
vs
Toronto: 3.5
Rebounding (L5)
+14.7% more
Atlanta: 45.1
vs
Toronto: 38.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.7%
Atlanta: 81.9%
vs
Toronto: 77.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
118.2
136
TOR Score
114.9
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 40.2
29.2 / 40.0
Assists
32.3 / 31.0
26.0 / 30.0
Blocks
3.5 / 4.3
4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 50.2
44.7 / 48.4
Free Throw %
77.2 / 81.9
88.9 / 74.3
Rebounding
38.4 / 45.1
52.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.5 / 9.5
10.0 / 22.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 16.6
31.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
ATL
TOR
ATL
ML
55%
57-47
50%
52-52
55%
48-39
55%
48-40
ATS
61%
62-40-2
53%
55-48-1
55%
48-39
55%
48-40
TTL
60%
62-42
53%
55-48-1
100%
87-0
100%
88-0
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