MIAMI
HEATMIA
15-14 | Road
104
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
21-10 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
ROCKETS
0%
HEAT
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
MIA By 1-7 points
24.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
14.2%
HOU By 1-7 points
26.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
16.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
112.11
MIAMI
Houston
112.8
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Miami
98
MIAMI
Houston
103
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 201.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MIA @ HOU
122 - 123
Feb 28, 2026
HOU @ MIA
105 - 115
Mar 21, 2025
HOU @ MIA
102 - 98
Dec 29, 2024
MIA @ HOU
104 - 100
Apr 5, 2024
MIA @ HOU
119 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+48.5% more
Houston: 5.8
vs
Miami: 3.9
Rebounding (L5)
+24.0% more
Houston: 50.6
vs
Miami: 40.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Houston: 47.0%
vs
Miami: 45.0%
Steals (L5)
+25.3% more
Miami: 9.5
vs
Houston: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
112.1
104
HOU Score
112.8
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 37.4
32.5 / 30.3
Assists
20.6 / 22.9
24.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.8 / 3.9
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 45.0
39.2 / 44.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 86.3
84.6 / 71.4
Rebounding
50.6 / 40.8
52.0 / 52.0
Steals
7.1 / 9.5
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 14.6
13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIA
HOU
MIA
ML
61%
69-44
48%
46-50
59%
51-35
59%
48-34
ATS
62%
70-43
51%
49-47
59%
51-35
59%
48-34
TTL
51%
58-55
59%
57-39
100%
86-0
100%
82-0
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