NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
14-15-7 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
16-16-5 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Marcus Hogberg
#50 | G@
GOALTENDER
Erik Karlsson
#65 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg | None-None | 3.16 | 0.927 | -- |
| Erik Karlsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.16
GAA
--
0.927
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
0%
PENGUINS
100%
ISLANDERS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NYI -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
NYI By 1 goal
18.2%
NYI By 2-3 goals
20.7%
PIT By 1 goal
16.6%
PIT By 2-3 goals
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.53
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
3.34
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Islanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Islanders (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PIT @ NYI
8 - 3
Feb 3, 2026
PIT @ NYI
4 - 5
Oct 9, 2025
NYI @ PIT
3 - 4
Mar 18, 2025
NYI @ PIT
4 - 2
Dec 29, 2024
NYI @ PIT
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+26.0% more
New York: 30.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 22.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.2%
New York: 57.0%
vs
Pittsburgh: 50.8%
Power Play % (L5)
+34.6%
Pittsburgh: 36.7%
vs
New York: 2.1%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+26.3% more
Pittsburgh: 13.6
vs
New York: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
3.5
2
PIT Score
3.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.6 / 10.8
21.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
50.8 / 57.0
49.3 / 50.7
Hits
20.4 / 18.7
12.0 / 12.0
Power Play %
36.7 / 2.1
100.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
22.7 / 30.7
41.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.6 / 4.8
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYI
PIT
NYI
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
2-0-1
50%
2-2
100%
2-0-1
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …