OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
18-15-2 | Road
3
MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
22-10-4 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Sanderson
#85 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Filip Gustavsson
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Sanderson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Filip Gustavsson | None-None | 2.05 | 0.944 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.05
--
Save %
0.944
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
WILD
100%
SENATORS
--
WILD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
18.0%
OTT By 2-3 goals
20.2%
MIN By 1 goal
16.8%
MIN By 2-3 goals
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
2.38
OTTAWA
Minnesota
2.24
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wild
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Wild (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
MIN @ OTT
4 - 1
Dec 13, 2025
OTT @ MIN
2 - 3
Feb 1, 2025
MIN @ OTT
0 - 6
Dec 29, 2024
OTT @ MIN
3 - 1
Apr 2, 2024
OTT @ MIN
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+18.4% more
Ottawa: 28.1
vs
Minnesota: 22.9
Power Play % (L5)
+14.3%
Ottawa: 18.6%
vs
Minnesota: 4.2%
Faceoff % (L5)
+10.3%
Ottawa: 58.6%
vs
Minnesota: 48.3%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+16.2% more
Minnesota: 15.4
vs
Ottawa: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
2.4
3
MIN Score
2.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.4 / 13.3
13.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
48.3 / 58.6
50.8 / 49.2
Hits
22.0 / 19.8
26.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
4.2 / 18.6
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
22.9 / 28.1
31.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 4.3
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
OTT
MIN
OTT
ML
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
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