MIAMI
HEATMIA
15-13 | Road
110
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
16-15 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
HAWKS
100%
HEAT
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
26.9%
MIA By 8-14 points
18.6%
ATL By 1-7 points
23.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
110.94
MIAMI
Atlanta
108.92
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Atlanta
107
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
ATL @ MIA
117 - 143
Feb 20, 2026
MIA @ ATL
128 - 97
Feb 3, 2026
ATL @ MIA
127 - 115
Dec 26, 2025
MIA @ ATL
126 - 111
Oct 13, 2025
MIA @ ATL
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+43.7% more
Atlanta: 5.5
vs
Miami: 3.8
Assists (L5)
+29.4% more
Atlanta: 29.5
vs
Miami: 22.8
Steals (L5)
+9.9% more
Atlanta: 10.8
vs
Miami: 9.8
Rebounding (L5)
+9.5% more
Atlanta: 44.1
vs
Miami: 40.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
110.9
110
ATL Score
108.9
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 40.2
40.5 / 31.7
Assists
29.5 / 22.8
34.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.5 / 3.8
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 45.3
51.2 / 44.4
Free Throw %
84.2 / 82.2
77.3 / 94.4
Rebounding
44.1 / 40.3
47.0 / 42.0
Steals
10.8 / 9.8
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
18.4 / 17.4
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
50%
52-52
48%
46-50
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
ATS
53%
55-48-1
51%
49-47
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
TTL
53%
55-48-1
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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