DETROIT
PISTONSDET
14-17 | Road
121
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
16-13 | Home
134
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
PISTONS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.1
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -7.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DET By 1-7 points
15.2%
DET By 8-14 points
5.7%
DEN By 1-7 points
26.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
25.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
115.95
DETROIT
Denver
123.01
DENVER
Simulated Score
Detroit
104
DETROIT
Denver
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.1
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 3, 2026
DEN @ DET
121 - 124
Jan 27, 2026
DET @ DEN
109 - 107
Feb 28, 2025
DEN @ DET
134 - 119
Dec 28, 2024
DET @ DEN
121 - 134
Jan 7, 2024
DET @ DEN
114 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.7% more
Denver: 32.7
vs
Detroit: 26.4
Turnovers (L5)
+14.5% more
Denver: 14.1
vs
Detroit: 12.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Denver: 52.2%
vs
Detroit: 47.2%
Steals (L5)
+22.9% more
Detroit: 9.2
vs
Denver: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
116.0
121
DEN Score
123.0
134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 38.9
48.1 / 30.8
Assists
32.7 / 26.4
29.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.6
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
52.2 / 47.2
56.1 / 48.4
Free Throw %
75.7 / 84.0
80.6 / 73.9
Rebounding
44.0 / 40.8
40.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.1 / 9.2
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 12.3
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
DET
DEN
DET
ML
54%
57-48
55%
64-53
55%
47-39
49%
47-49
ATS
63%
65-38-2
53%
60-54-3
55%
47-39
49%
47-49
TTL
54%
56-48-1
60%
70-46-1
100%
86-0
100%
96-0
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