DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
20-11 | Road
122
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
10-20 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
MAVERICKS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.8
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.8 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -9.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1-7 points
23.3%
DAL By 8-14 points
27.2%
POR By 1-7 points
11.0%
POR By 8-14 points
3.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
115.16
DALLAS
Portland
105.37
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Dallas
99
DALLAS
Portland
101
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.8
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 27, 2026
DAL @ POR
100 - 93
Dec 29, 2025
DAL @ POR
122 - 125
Nov 16, 2025
POR @ DAL
133 - 138
Jan 9, 2025
POR @ DAL
111 - 117
Dec 28, 2024
DAL @ POR
122 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+12.5% more
Dallas: 5.6
vs
Portland: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.6%
Dallas: 87.0%
vs
Portland: 76.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Dallas: 36.5%
vs
Portland: 33.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
115.2
122
POR Score
105.4
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 36.5
42.3 / 39.5
Assists
24.8 / 23.0
27.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.9 / 5.6
7.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 45.7
50.0 / 48.3
Free Throw %
76.4 / 87.0
79.3 / 80.8
Rebounding
44.3 / 42.5
50.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.8 / 7.8
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 13.9
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
DAL
POR
DAL
ML
53%
56-49
62%
63-39
55%
49-40
54%
44-37
ATS
62%
65-39-1
67%
68-34
55%
49-40
54%
44-37
TTL
56%
58-46-1
59%
60-41-1
100%
89-0
100%
81-0
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