Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Lakers SAC @ LAL

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

13-18  |  Road

122
FINAL
Sat, Dec 28 • 10:30 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

17-13  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
KINGS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

58.7%

Lakers Cover

41.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

26.9%

SAC By 8-14 points

18.9%

LAL By 1-7 points

22.7%

LAL By 8-14 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
111.06
SACRAMENTO
108.85
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
113
SACRAMENTO
126
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 SAC @ LAL 104 - 128
Jan 12, 2026 LAL @ SAC 112 - 124
Dec 28, 2025 SAC @ LAL 101 - 125
Oct 26, 2025 LAL @ SAC 127 - 120
Dec 28, 2024 SAC @ LAL 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.1% more
Los Angeles: 7.9 vs Sacramento: 5.8
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
Los Angeles: 14.5 vs Sacramento: 12.8
Assists (L5) +12.9% more
Los Angeles: 26.4 vs Sacramento: 23.4
Blocks (L5) +12.7% more
Los Angeles: 5.2 vs Sacramento: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 111.1 122
LAL Score 108.9 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 34.0 53.8 / 27.5
Assists 26.4 / 23.4 33.0 / 38.0
Blocks 5.2 / 4.6 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 44.3 59.7 / 51.0
Free Throw % 84.0 / 79.2 78.8 / 73.3
Rebounding 43.2 / 44.9 33.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.9 / 5.8 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 12.8 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
SAC
LAL
SAC
ML
61% 68-43
55% 55-45
54% 49-42
61% 50-32
ATS
61% 67-43-1
54% 52-45-3
54% 49-42
61% 50-32
TTL
61% 66-43-2
58% 57-42-1
100% 91-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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