OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
18-14-2 | Road
2
WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
25-10-1 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Mads Sogaard
#40 | G@
GOALTENDER
Connor Hellebuyck
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mads Sogaard | None-None | 4.21 | 0.826 | -- |
| Connor Hellebuyck | None-None | 2.00 | 0.943 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.21
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.826
Save %
Ldr 0.943
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
JETS
0%
SENATORS
--
JETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Winnipeg)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WPG -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)
OTT By 1 goal
16.7%
OTT By 2-3 goals
16.9%
WPG By 1 goal
18.1%
WPG By 2-3 goals
20.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
3.26
OTTAWA
Winnipeg
3.43
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Winnipeg
4
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jets
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jets (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Jets (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 3, 2026
WPG @ OTT
2 - 4
Dec 15, 2025
OTT @ WPG
3 - 2
Feb 26, 2025
WPG @ OTT
4 - 1
Dec 28, 2024
OTT @ WPG
2 - 4
Mar 30, 2024
OTT @ WPG
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+40.8%
Winnipeg: 43.6%
vs
Ottawa: 2.8%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+39.5% more
Winnipeg: 18.7
vs
Ottawa: 13.4
Takeaways (L5)
+24.2% more
Winnipeg: 4.9
vs
Ottawa: 4.0
Hits (L5)
+26.5% more
Ottawa: 19.2
vs
Winnipeg: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
3.3
2
WPG Score
3.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.7 / 13.4
18.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
50.4 / 57.4
39.1 / 60.9
Hits
14.1 / 19.2
15.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
43.6 / 2.8
33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
26.2 / 24.6
23.0 / 35.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 4.0
8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
OTT
WPG
OTT
ML
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
75%
3-1
TTL
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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