PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
16-15-5 | Road
3
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
13-15-7 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 3.00 | 0.880 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.00
--
Save %
0.880
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
ISLANDERS
100%
PENGUINS
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1 goal
19.5%
PIT By 2-3 goals
26.5%
NYI By 1 goal
13.8%
NYI By 2-3 goals
11.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.52
PITTSBURGH
New York
2.81
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
New York
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Islanders (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PIT @ NYI
8 - 3
Feb 3, 2026
PIT @ NYI
4 - 5
Oct 9, 2025
NYI @ PIT
3 - 4
Mar 18, 2025
NYI @ PIT
4 - 2
Dec 29, 2024
NYI @ PIT
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+39.3%
Pittsburgh: 42.5%
vs
New York: 3.2%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+34.6% more
New York: 29.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 21.6
Hits (L5)
+8.5% more
New York: 18.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 17.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.5%
New York: 58.2%
vs
Pittsburgh: 53.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.5
3
NYI Score
2.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.7 / 12.9
7.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
58.2 / 53.6
54.8 / 45.2
Hits
18.5 / 17.1
19.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
3.2 / 42.5
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
29.1 / 21.6
34.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
6.3 / 6.4
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
PIT
NYI
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
2-0-1
25%
1-3
100%
2-0-1
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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