Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Celtics IND @ BOS

INDIANA

PACERSIND

15-16  |  Road

105
FINAL
Fri, Dec 27 • 7:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

22-8  |  Home

142
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
PACERS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Boston)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

31.0%

Celtics Cover

69.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

IND By 1-7 points

18.6%

IND By 8-14 points

8.1%

BOS By 1-7 points

27.2%

BOS By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
113.25
INDIANA
118.2
BOSTON
Simulated Score
104
INDIANA
112
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 IND @ BOS 104 - 119
Jan 12, 2026 BOS @ IND 96 - 98
Dec 26, 2025 BOS @ IND 140 - 122
Dec 22, 2025 IND @ BOS 95 - 103
Dec 29, 2024 IND @ BOS 123 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.4% more
Boston: 7.3 vs Indiana: 5.6
Turnovers (L5) +13.4% more
Boston: 13.6 vs Indiana: 12.0
Assists (L5) +23.4% more
Indiana: 29.3 vs Boston: 22.5
Blocks (L5) +21.9% more
Indiana: 6.3 vs Boston: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 113.3 105
BOS Score 118.2 142
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 38.1 41.1 / 28.2
Assists 22.5 / 29.3 31.0 / 27.0
Blocks 4.9 / 6.3 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 49.5 51.1 / 41.8
Free Throw % 74.2 / 78.5 86.2 / 72.0
Rebounding 49.3 / 46.5 52.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.3 / 5.6 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 12.0 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
IND
BOS
IND
ML
57% 61-46
48% 47-50
53% 47-41
54% 45-38
ATS
59% 61-43-3
59% 57-40
53% 47-41
54% 45-38
TTL
56% 60-47
54% 52-45
100% 88-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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