Home / NBA Projections NBA / Cavaliers @ Nuggets CLE @ DEN

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

26-4  |  Road

149
FINAL
Fri, Dec 27 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

16-12  |  Home

135
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
CAVALIERS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Denver)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

41.6%

Nuggets Cover

58.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

CLE By 1-7 points

22.9%

CLE By 8-14 points

12.0%

DEN By 1-7 points

26.9%

DEN By 8-14 points

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
121.47
CLEVELAND
123.58
DENVER
Simulated Score
109
CLEVELAND
117
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.1
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 245.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 9, 2026 CLE @ DEN 119 - 117
Jan 2, 2026 DEN @ CLE 108 - 113
Dec 27, 2024 CLE @ DEN 149 - 135
Dec 5, 2024 DEN @ CLE 114 - 126
Mar 31, 2024 CLE @ DEN 101 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.3% more
Denver: 3.8 vs Cleveland: 2.6
Turnovers (L5) +16.7% more
Denver: 14.7 vs Cleveland: 12.6
Steals (L5) +32.0% more
Cleveland: 9.7 vs Denver: 6.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.8%
Cleveland: 43.5% vs Denver: 33.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 121.5 149
DEN Score 123.6 135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 43.5 48.4 / 47.9
Assists 29.5 / 31.0 39.0 / 40.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.6 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 50.0 / 49.3 56.4 / 56.3
Free Throw % 74.7 / 74.2 77.8 / 81.8
Rebounding 47.0 / 44.4 38.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.6 / 9.7 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 12.6 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
CLE
DEN
CLE
ML
54% 57-48
60% 69-46
55% 47-39
56% 55-44
ATS
63% 65-38-2
67% 75-37-3
55% 47-39
56% 55-44
TTL
54% 56-48-1
59% 68-47
100% 86-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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