DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
19-11 | Road
98
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
15-14 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
SUNS
100%
MAVERICKS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1-7 points
26.1%
DAL By 8-14 points
16.8%
PHX By 1-7 points
24.4%
PHX By 8-14 points
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
114.76
DALLAS
Phoenix
113.84
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Dallas
112
DALLAS
Phoenix
117
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 228.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
DAL @ PHX
107 - 112
Feb 10, 2026
DAL @ PHX
111 - 120
Nov 12, 2025
PHX @ DAL
123 - 114
Mar 9, 2025
PHX @ DAL
125 - 116
Dec 27, 2024
DAL @ PHX
98 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+34.7% more
Dallas: 5.9
vs
Phoenix: 3.8
Assists (L5)
+25.3% more
Phoenix: 28.2
vs
Dallas: 22.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
114.8
98
PHX Score
113.8
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.4 / 37.0
37.1 / 35.3
Assists
28.2 / 22.5
23.0 / 24.0
Blocks
3.8 / 5.9
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 46.7
38.6 / 43.8
Free Throw %
82.5 / 83.5
66.7 / 94.1
Rebounding
40.5 / 43.2
42.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.9 / 8.7
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 13.4
16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
DAL
PHX
DAL
ML
57%
60-45
62%
63-39
51%
45-43
54%
44-37
ATS
58%
59-43-3
67%
68-34
51%
45-43
54%
44-37
TTL
59%
61-42-2
59%
60-41-1
100%
88-0
100%
81-0
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