Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Buccaneers CAR @ TB

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

4-11  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Dec 29 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

8-7  |  Home

48
Key Game
Akayleb Evans
KEY GAME

Akayleb Evans

#29 | Cornerback
@
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
Player
Akayleb Evans None-None
Chase McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
24%
📊
BUCCANEERS
76%
PANTHERS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.3 points (Tampa Bay)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

35.3%

Buccaneers Cover

64.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -5.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

CAR By 1-6 points

14.0%

CAR By 7-13 points

11.0%

TB By 1-6 points

16.8%

TB By 7-13 points

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.33
CAROLINA
27.61
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
24
CAROLINA
35
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
76% Win Prob
B
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.3
C
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 CAR @ TB 14 - 16
Dec 21, 2025 TB @ CAR 20 - 23
Dec 29, 2024 CAR @ TB 14 - 48
Dec 1, 2024 TB @ CAR 26 - 23
Jan 7, 2024 TB @ CAR 9 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.9 vs Carolina: 1.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +44.8% more
Tampa Bay: 262.4 vs Carolina: 181.2
Total Yards (L5) +32.8% more
Tampa Bay: 428.4 vs Carolina: 322.6
First Downs (L5) +24.4% more
Tampa Bay: 23.8 vs Carolina: 19.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 22.3 14
TB Score 27.6 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 19.1 33.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards 262.4 / 181.2 349.0 / 165.0
Rushing Yards 166.1 / 141.4 202.0 / 39.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.71 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.69 / 0.31
Total Yards 428.4 / 322.6 551.0 / 204.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.5 / 5.3 7.4 / 4.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CAR
TB
CAR
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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