Home / NBA Projections NBA / Heat @ Magic MIA @ ORL

MIAMI

HEATMIA

14-13  |  Road

89
FINAL
Thu, Dec 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Kia Center
View Odds Details →

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

19-12  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
MAGIC
0%
HEAT --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Orlando)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

34.2%

Magic Cover

65.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)

MIA By 1-7 points

20.0%

MIA By 8-14 points

9.2%

ORL By 1-7 points

27.4%

ORL By 8-14 points

21.7%

AI Model Projected Score
107.34
MIAMI
111.4
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
112
MIAMI
105
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Magic Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Magic (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim Heat (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 218.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 ORL @ MIA 121 - 117
Jan 28, 2026 ORL @ MIA 133 - 124
Dec 9, 2025 MIA @ ORL 108 - 117
Dec 5, 2025 MIA @ ORL 105 - 106
Oct 22, 2025 MIA @ ORL 121 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +190.6% more
Orlando: 8.0 vs Miami: 2.8
Steals (L5) +11.0% more
Orlando: 8.6 vs Miami: 7.7
Turnovers (L5) +9.5% more
Orlando: 17.0 vs Miami: 15.6
Free Throw % (L5) +6.0%
Orlando: 86.5% vs Miami: 80.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 107.3 89
ORL Score 111.4 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 35.3 17.2 / 50.0
Assists 24.0 / 23.7 14.0 / 21.0
Blocks 8.0 / 2.8 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 47.6 44.2 / 40.8
Free Throw % 86.5 / 80.5 83.3 / 85.7
Rebounding 41.4 / 42.9 42.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.6 / 7.7 12.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 17.0 / 15.6 23.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
MIA
ORL
MIA
ML
61% 65-42
48% 46-50
56% 51-40
59% 48-34
ATS
64% 68-38-1
51% 49-47
56% 51-40
59% 48-34
TTL
57% 61-46
59% 57-39
100% 91-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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