Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Grizzlies TOR @ MEM

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

7-23  |  Road

126
FINAL
Thu, Dec 26 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

20-10  |  Home

155
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
RAPTORS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 points (Memphis)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

28.9%

Grizzlies Cover

71.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

TOR By 1-7 points

17.6%

TOR By 8-14 points

7.3%

MEM By 1-7 points

27.0%

MEM By 8-14 points

23.7%

AI Model Projected Score
116.35
TORONTO
121.91
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
114
TORONTO
122
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.6
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 238.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 3, 2026 TOR @ MEM 128 - 96
Nov 2, 2025 MEM @ TOR 104 - 117
Feb 5, 2025 MEM @ TOR 138 - 107
Dec 26, 2024 TOR @ MEM 126 - 155
Jan 22, 2024 MEM @ TOR 108 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +41.6% more
Memphis: 10.3 vs Toronto: 7.3
Rebounding (L5) +34.9% more
Memphis: 50.8 vs Toronto: 37.7
Blocks (L5) +29.1% more
Memphis: 4.8 vs Toronto: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +14.3% more
Memphis: 18.3 vs Toronto: 16.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 116.4 126
MEM Score 121.9 155
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.2 / 37.3 40.0 / 32.6
Assists 30.7 / 28.9 36.0 / 39.0
Blocks 4.8 / 3.7 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 48.0 53.2 / 45.4
Free Throw % 74.3 / 76.9 72.4 / 77.8
Rebounding 50.8 / 37.7 63.0 / 40.0
Steals 10.3 / 7.3 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 18.3 / 16.1 18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
TOR
MEM
TOR
ML
57% 59-44
55% 57-47
50% 41-41
55% 48-39
ATS
63% 65-38
61% 62-40-2
50% 41-41
55% 48-39
TTL
70% 71-31-1
60% 62-42
100% 82-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 38 minutes ago
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 47 minutes ago
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener
headtopics 18 hours, 57 minutes ago
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
cbssports 1 day ago
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
actionnews5 1 day ago