Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Patriots LAC @ NE

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

9-6  |  Road

40
FINAL
Sat, Dec 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

3-12  |  Home

7
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
Player
JK Scott None-None
Bryce Baringer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
86%
📊
PATRIOTS
14%
CHARGERS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Los Angeles)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

56.0%

Patriots Cover

44.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAC -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-6 points

16.9%

LAC By 7-13 points

16.9%

NE By 1-6 points

15.7%

NE By 7-13 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.11
LOS ANGELES
19.01
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
31
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Chargers Win
86% Win Prob
A
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chargers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.1
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 11, 2026 LAC @ NE 3 - 16
Dec 28, 2024 LAC @ NE 40 - 7
Dec 3, 2023 LAC @ NE 6 - 0
Oct 31, 2021 NE @ LAC 27 - 24
Dec 6, 2020 NE @ LAC 45 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +94.0% more
New England: 1.9 vs Los Angeles: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.8% more
New England: 129.1 vs Los Angeles: 88.0
First Downs (L5) +17.2% more
New England: 21.9 vs Los Angeles: 18.7
Total Yards (L5) +15.8% more
New England: 348.1 vs Los Angeles: 300.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 21.1 40
NE Score 19.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 18.7 11.0 / 29.0
Net Passing Yards 219.0 / 212.5 85.0 / 281.0
Rushing Yards 129.1 / 88.0 96.0 / 147.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.2 / 0.59
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.32 / 0.68
Total Yards 348.1 / 300.5 181.0 / 428.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.3 3.8 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
LAC
NE
LAC
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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