Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Suns DEN @ PHX

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

16-11  |  Road

100
FINAL
Wed, Dec 25 • 10:30 PM ET
Footprint Center
View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

14-14  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
SUNS
100%
NUGGETS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Denver)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

61.4%

Suns Cover

38.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

27.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

20.0%

PHX By 1-7 points

21.8%

PHX By 8-14 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
122.72
DENVER
119.82
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
115
DENVER
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nuggets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.9
D
Sim Suns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 242.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 DEN @ PHX 125 - 123
Nov 29, 2025 DEN @ PHX 130 - 112
Oct 25, 2025 PHX @ DEN 111 - 133
Mar 7, 2025 PHX @ DEN 141 - 149
Feb 8, 2025 DEN @ PHX 122 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.1% more
Denver: 34.3 vs Phoenix: 26.7
Blocks (L5) +21.2% more
Denver: 4.8 vs Phoenix: 3.8
Rebounding (L5) +16.3% more
Denver: 47.5 vs Phoenix: 39.8
Steals (L5) +13.5% more
Denver: 8.4 vs Phoenix: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 122.7 100
PHX Score 119.8 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.8 / 36.7 30.6 / 27.6
Assists 26.7 / 34.3 31.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.8 / 4.8 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 51.9 46.6 / 46.2
Free Throw % 81.3 / 76.4 85.0 / 71.4
Rebounding 39.8 / 47.5 42.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.3 / 8.4 12.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 14.0 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
DEN
PHX
DEN
ML
57% 60-45
54% 57-48
51% 45-43
55% 47-39
ATS
58% 59-43-3
63% 65-38-2
51% 45-43
55% 47-39
TTL
59% 61-42-2
54% 56-48-1
100% 88-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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