HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
19-9 | Road
114
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
7-21 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
HORNETS
100%
ROCKETS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
27.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
23.0%
CHA By 1-7 points
18.6%
CHA By 8-14 points
8.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
110.44
HOUSTON
Charlotte
105.49
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Charlotte
108
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 215.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
HOU @ CHA
105 - 101
Feb 5, 2026
CHA @ HOU
109 - 99
Dec 23, 2024
HOU @ CHA
114 - 101
Oct 23, 2024
CHA @ HOU
110 - 105
Jan 26, 2024
HOU @ CHA
138 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+21.2% more
Houston: 5.4
vs
Charlotte: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Houston: 79.5%
vs
Charlotte: 73.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Houston: 46.4%
vs
Charlotte: 44.4%
Assists (L5)
+12.1% more
Charlotte: 25.2
vs
Houston: 22.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
110.4
114
CHA Score
105.5
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.0 / 30.4
27.8 / 31.0
Assists
25.2 / 22.5
25.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.3 / 5.4
6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 46.4
41.6 / 43.4
Free Throw %
73.3 / 79.5
70.8 / 78.9
Rebounding
45.6 / 47.5
44.0 / 60.0
Steals
9.0 / 8.9
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 16.3
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
HOU
CHA
HOU
ML
61%
60-39
61%
69-44
48%
40-44
59%
51-35
ATS
60%
59-40
62%
70-43
48%
40-44
59%
51-35
TTL
58%
57-42
51%
58-55
100%
84-0
100%
86-0
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