BROOKLYN
NETSBKN
11-17 | Road
95
MIAMI
HEATMIA
13-13 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
NETS
100%
HEAT
0%
NETS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
BKN By 1-7 points
23.5%
BKN By 8-14 points
12.7%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Brooklyn
109.28
BROOKLYN
Miami
110.9
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Brooklyn
104
BROOKLYN
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
BKN @ MIA
110 - 126
Mar 3, 2026
BKN @ MIA
98 - 124
Dec 18, 2025
MIA @ BKN
106 - 95
Feb 7, 2025
MIA @ BKN
86 - 102
Jan 25, 2025
MIA @ BKN
106 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Miami: 46.7%
vs
Brooklyn: 42.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Miami: 32.2%
vs
Brooklyn: 28.5%
Blocks (L5)
+35.8% more
Brooklyn: 4.1
vs
Miami: 2.7
Turnovers (L5)
+15.2% more
Brooklyn: 18.1
vs
Miami: 15.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BKN Score
109.3
95
MIA Score
110.9
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 28.5
41.5 / 38.2
Assists
22.1 / 23.4
27.0 / 23.0
Blocks
2.7 / 4.1
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 42.2
49.3 / 39.3
Free Throw %
76.9 / 85.2
87.5 / 80.0
Rebounding
42.4 / 44.8
44.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.6 / 8.0
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 18.1
16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BKN
20-62-0
(24.4%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -1.3
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BKN
38-43-1
(46.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -1.3
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: -0.7
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
BKN
MIA
BKN
ML
48%
46-50
53%
50-45
59%
48-34
59%
48-34
ATS
51%
49-47
52%
48-44-3
59%
48-34
59%
48-34
TTL
59%
57-39
57%
54-41
100%
82-0
100%
82-0
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