Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Mavericks POR @ DAL

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

9-19  |  Road

108
FINAL
Mon, Dec 23 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

18-10  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.2
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.2 points (Dallas)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

6.4%

Mavericks Cover

93.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -15.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

POR By 1-7 points

4.7%

POR By 8-14 points

1.0%

DAL By 1-7 points

15.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

25.1%

AI Model Projected Score
104.16
PORTLAND
119.37
DALLAS
Simulated Score
111
PORTLAND
105
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.2
D
Sim Trail Blazers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 223.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 DAL @ POR 100 - 93
Dec 29, 2025 DAL @ POR 122 - 125
Nov 16, 2025 POR @ DAL 133 - 138
Jan 9, 2025 POR @ DAL 111 - 117
Dec 28, 2024 DAL @ POR 122 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +41.2% more
Dallas: 10.0 vs Portland: 7.1
Blocks (L5) +16.7% more
Dallas: 5.2 vs Portland: 4.5
Turnovers (L5) +12.6% more
Dallas: 14.9 vs Portland: 13.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
Dallas: 38.8% vs Portland: 31.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 104.2 108
DAL Score 119.4 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.8 / 31.8 33.3 / 27.6
Assists 25.8 / 24.8 27.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.2 / 4.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 44.0 53.3 / 46.2
Free Throw % 77.6 / 77.1 70.6 / 73.7
Rebounding 44.5 / 43.3 41.0 / 48.0
Steals 10.0 / 7.1 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 13.2 11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
POR
DAL
POR
ML
62% 63-39
53% 56-49
54% 44-37
55% 49-40
ATS
67% 68-34
62% 65-39-1
54% 44-37
55% 49-40
TTL
59% 60-41-1
56% 58-46-1
100% 81-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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