Home / NBA Projections NBA / Suns @ Nuggets PHX @ DEN

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

14-13  |  Road

90
FINAL
Mon, Dec 23 • 10:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

15-11  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
SUNS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Denver)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

49.1%

Nuggets Cover

50.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

PHX By 1-7 points

25.1%

PHX By 8-14 points

14.9%

DEN By 1-7 points

25.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
121.74
PHOENIX
121.97
DENVER
Simulated Score
112
PHOENIX
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 243.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 DEN @ PHX 125 - 123
Nov 29, 2025 DEN @ PHX 130 - 112
Oct 25, 2025 PHX @ DEN 111 - 133
Mar 7, 2025 PHX @ DEN 141 - 149
Feb 8, 2025 DEN @ PHX 122 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +64.2% more
Denver: 5.1 vs Phoenix: 3.1
Steals (L5) +21.4% more
Denver: 9.6 vs Phoenix: 7.9
Rebounding (L5) +20.3% more
Denver: 48.3 vs Phoenix: 40.1
Assists (L5) +18.7% more
Denver: 33.9 vs Phoenix: 28.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 121.7 90
DEN Score 122.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 41.5 39.0 / 39.4
Assists 33.9 / 28.6 35.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.1 / 3.1 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 52.4 / 51.8 51.1 / 39.8
Free Throw % 73.7 / 85.3 81.8 / 73.3
Rebounding 48.3 / 40.1 46.0 / 39.0
Steals 9.6 / 7.9 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 15.6 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
PHX
DEN
PHX
ML
54% 57-48
57% 60-45
55% 47-39
51% 45-43
ATS
63% 65-38-2
58% 59-43-3
55% 47-39
51% 45-43
TTL
54% 56-48-1
59% 61-42-2
100% 86-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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