Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pistons @ Lakers DET @ LAL

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

12-17  |  Road

117
FINAL
Mon, Dec 23 • 10:30 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

16-12  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
PISTONS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (Los Angeles)
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

33.3%

Lakers Cover

66.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

DET By 1-7 points

19.6%

DET By 8-14 points

8.9%

LAL By 1-7 points

27.4%

LAL By 8-14 points

22.1%

AI Model Projected Score
109.76
DETROIT
114.09
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
107
DETROIT
115
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.3
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 223.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 LAL @ DET 110 - 113
Dec 30, 2025 DET @ LAL 128 - 106
Dec 23, 2024 DET @ LAL 117 - 114
Nov 4, 2024 LAL @ DET 103 - 115
Feb 13, 2024 DET @ LAL 111 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +47.1% more
Los Angeles: 7.1 vs Detroit: 4.8
Rebounding (L5) +17.6% more
Los Angeles: 47.4 vs Detroit: 40.3
Turnovers (L5) +12.3% more
Los Angeles: 16.0 vs Detroit: 14.2
Assists (L5) +20.1% more
Detroit: 28.7 vs Los Angeles: 23.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 109.8 117
LAL Score 114.1 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.5 / 40.3 46.7 / 36.7
Assists 23.0 / 28.7 28.0 / 24.0
Blocks 7.1 / 4.8 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 49.3 54.1 / 51.1
Free Throw % 73.9 / 76.0 80.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 47.4 / 40.3 38.0 / 37.0
Steals 9.4 / 10.1 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 14.2 20.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
DET
LAL
DET
ML
61% 68-43
55% 64-53
54% 49-42
49% 47-49
ATS
61% 67-43-1
53% 60-54-3
54% 49-42
49% 47-49
TTL
61% 66-43-2
60% 70-46-1
100% 91-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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