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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

11-19-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Mon, Dec 23 • 7:30 PM ET
UBS Arena
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

13-14-7  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 1.00 0.964 --
Ilya Sorokin None-None 6.21 0.750 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 6.21
0.964 Ldr Save % 0.750
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
0%
📊
ISLANDERS
100%
SABRES --
ISLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Buffalo)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 IslandersNYI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

52.8%

Islanders Cover

47.2%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1 goal

18.0%

BUF By 2-3 goals

20.2%

NYI By 1 goal

16.8%

NYI By 2-3 goals

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
2.61
BUFFALO
2.47
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
BUFFALO
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sabres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Islanders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sabres (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim Islanders (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 NYI @ BUF 3 - 4
Jan 24, 2026 BUF @ NYI 5 - 0
Dec 20, 2025 NYI @ BUF 2 - 3
Dec 23, 2024 BUF @ NYI 7 - 1
Nov 30, 2024 BUF @ NYI 0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +19.3% more
Buffalo: 22.7 vs New York: 18.3
Power Play % (L5) +11.8%
Buffalo: 16.5% vs New York: 4.8%
Takeaways (L5) +39.9% more
New York: 6.4 vs Buffalo: 4.6
Shots on Goal (L5) +26.1% more
New York: 29.6 vs Buffalo: 23.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 2.6 7
NYI Score 2.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.5 / 15.4 9.0 / 30.0
Faceoff % 58.3 / 44.7 57.8 / 42.2
Hits 18.3 / 22.7 19.0 / 17.0
Power Play % 4.8 / 16.5 0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 29.6 / 23.5 28.0 / 25.0
Takeaways 6.4 / 4.6 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
81%MONEY19%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
BUF
NYI
BUF
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
TTL
100% 2-0-1
33% 1-2
100% 2-0-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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