HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
18-9 | Road
114
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
7-21 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
ROCKETS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
27.4%
HOU By 8-14 points
21.4%
TOR By 1-7 points
20.4%
TOR By 8-14 points
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
109.05
HOUSTON
Toronto
105.21
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Toronto
119
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.8
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 214.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
TOR @ HOU
99 - 113
Feb 9, 2025
TOR @ HOU
87 - 94
Dec 22, 2024
HOU @ TOR
114 - 110
Feb 9, 2024
HOU @ TOR
104 - 107
Feb 2, 2024
TOR @ HOU
106 - 135
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+9.1% more
Houston: 5.1
vs
Toronto: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Houston: 47.1%
vs
Toronto: 44.2%
Assists (L5)
+11.4% more
Toronto: 27.6
vs
Houston: 24.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Toronto: 34.7%
vs
Houston: 33.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
109.1
114
TOR Score
105.2
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 33.1
39.5 / 25.0
Assists
27.6 / 24.8
33.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.7 / 5.1
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 47.1
45.7 / 44.9
Free Throw %
77.6 / 78.3
69.2 / 81.8
Rebounding
41.2 / 44.8
42.0 / 53.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.3
10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.4 / 14.0
21.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
HOU
TOR
HOU
ML
55%
57-47
61%
69-44
55%
48-39
59%
51-35
ATS
61%
62-40-2
62%
70-43
55%
48-39
59%
51-35
TTL
60%
62-42
51%
58-55
100%
87-0
100%
86-0
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