INDIANA
PACERSIND
13-15 | Road
122
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
13-16 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
KINGS
0%
PACERS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
IND By 1-7 points
23.4%
IND By 8-14 points
12.6%
SAC By 1-7 points
26.7%
SAC By 8-14 points
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
116.92
INDIANA
Sacramento
118.61
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Indiana
108
INDIANA
Sacramento
113
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
IND @ SAC
109 - 114
Dec 8, 2025
SAC @ IND
105 - 116
Mar 31, 2025
SAC @ IND
109 - 111
Dec 22, 2024
IND @ SAC
122 - 95
Feb 2, 2024
SAC @ IND
133 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.7% more
Indiana: 6.8
vs
Sacramento: 4.3
Assists (L5)
+9.6% more
Indiana: 30.0
vs
Sacramento: 27.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Indiana: 39.4%
vs
Sacramento: 33.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.2%
Indiana: 83.6%
vs
Sacramento: 79.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
116.9
122
SAC Score
118.6
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.8 / 39.4
31.6 / 43.6
Assists
27.2 / 30.0
21.0 / 36.0
Blocks
4.3 / 6.8
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 48.3
36.5 / 58.1
Free Throw %
79.4 / 83.6
76.5 / 62.5
Rebounding
44.6 / 42.2
47.0 / 50.0
Steals
9.3 / 9.1
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 13.0
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
SAC
Advantage
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
IND
SAC
IND
ML
55%
55-45
48%
47-50
61%
50-32
54%
45-38
ATS
54%
52-45-3
59%
57-40
61%
50-32
54%
45-38
TTL
58%
57-42-1
54%
52-45
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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