OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
18-13-2 | Road
1
EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
20-11-2 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ty Emberson
#49 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 3.00 | 0.857 | -- |
| Ty Emberson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00
GAA
--
0.857
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
OILERS
0%
SENATORS
--
OILERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
OTT By 1 goal
11.4%
OTT By 2-3 goals
8.5%
EDM By 1 goal
19.7%
EDM By 2-3 goals
30.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
3.13
OTTAWA
Edmonton
4.25
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Edmonton
6
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Oilers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Oilers
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Oilers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.1
D
Sim
Oilers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
OTT @ EDM
4 - 5
Oct 21, 2025
EDM @ OTT
3 - 2
Dec 22, 2024
OTT @ EDM
1 - 3
Nov 19, 2024
EDM @ OTT
5 - 2
Mar 24, 2024
EDM @ OTT
3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+51.0% more
Edmonton: 5.2
vs
Ottawa: 3.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+27.1% more
Edmonton: 33.5
vs
Ottawa: 26.4
Power Play % (L5)
+13.1%
Edmonton: 17.4%
vs
Ottawa: 4.3%
Hits (L5)
+34.1% more
Ottawa: 20.7
vs
Edmonton: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
3.1
1
EDM Score
4.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.4 / 17.1
24.0 / 6.0
Faceoff %
53.6 / 55.9
39.6 / 60.4
Hits
13.7 / 20.7
11.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
17.4 / 4.3
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
33.5 / 26.4
21.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 3.5
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
OTT
EDM
OTT
ML
75%
3-1
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
0%
0-3
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
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