MIAMI
HEATMIA
13-12 | Road
114
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
17-12 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
MAGIC
0%
HEAT
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
MIA By 1-7 points
21.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
10.7%
ORL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ORL By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
108.98
MIAMI
Orlando
111.99
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Miami
108
MIAMI
Orlando
104
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
ORL @ MIA
121 - 117
Jan 28, 2026
ORL @ MIA
133 - 124
Dec 9, 2025
MIA @ ORL
108 - 117
Dec 5, 2025
MIA @ ORL
105 - 106
Oct 22, 2025
MIA @ ORL
121 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+129.0% more
Orlando: 6.8
vs
Miami: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+8.5% more
Orlando: 16.8
vs
Miami: 15.5
Assists (L5)
+10.4% more
Miami: 25.2
vs
Orlando: 22.6
Steals (L5)
+9.0% more
Miami: 9.3
vs
Orlando: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
109.0
114
ORL Score
112.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.5 / 34.3
29.7 / 28.1
Assists
22.6 / 25.2
24.0 / 16.0
Blocks
6.8 / 3.0
9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 46.1
49.4 / 48.0
Free Throw %
75.1 / 76.1
88.9 / 78.6
Rebounding
41.2 / 44.5
41.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.5 / 9.3
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.8 / 15.5
13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
MIA
ORL
MIA
ML
61%
65-42
48%
46-50
56%
51-40
59%
48-34
ATS
64%
68-38-1
51%
49-47
56%
51-40
59%
48-34
TTL
57%
61-46
59%
57-39
100%
91-0
100%
82-0
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