MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
19-9 | Road
128
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
14-14 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
HAWKS
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.2
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.2 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -5.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
27.2%
MEM By 8-14 points
23.3%
ATL By 1-7 points
18.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
124.5
MEMPHIS
Atlanta
119.31
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Atlanta
110
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.2
D
Sim
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 243.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
MEM @ ATL
107 - 146
Jan 21, 2026
ATL @ MEM
124 - 122
Oct 11, 2025
ATL @ MEM
122 - 116
Mar 3, 2025
ATL @ MEM
132 - 130
Dec 21, 2024
MEM @ ATL
128 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+10.8% more
Memphis: 10.6
vs
Atlanta: 9.5
Assists (L5)
+9.8% more
Memphis: 32.1
vs
Atlanta: 29.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
Memphis: 44.3%
vs
Atlanta: 36.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Memphis: 49.4%
vs
Atlanta: 45.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
124.5
128
ATL Score
119.3
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 44.3
36.8 / 43.9
Assists
29.0 / 32.1
29.0 / 35.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.9
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 49.4
48.8 / 51.5
Free Throw %
76.1 / 76.7
83.3 / 76.9
Rebounding
50.4 / 52.3
41.0 / 40.0
Steals
9.5 / 10.6
11.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
16.7 / 17.3
25.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MEM
ATL
MEM
ML
50%
52-52
57%
59-44
55%
48-40
50%
41-41
ATS
53%
55-48-1
63%
65-38
55%
48-40
50%
41-41
TTL
53%
55-48-1
70%
71-31-1
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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