DETROIT
PISTONSDET
11-17 | Road
133
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
14-12 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
SUNS
0%
PISTONS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
DET By 1-7 points
22.2%
DET By 8-14 points
11.2%
PHX By 1-7 points
27.1%
PHX By 8-14 points
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
113.62
DETROIT
Phoenix
116.25
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Detroit
110
DETROIT
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
DET @ PHX
96 - 114
Jan 15, 2026
PHX @ DET
105 - 108
Jan 18, 2025
PHX @ DET
125 - 121
Dec 21, 2024
DET @ PHX
133 - 125
Oct 8, 2024
PHX @ DET
105 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.6%
Phoenix: 82.3%
vs
Detroit: 77.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Phoenix: 48.9%
vs
Detroit: 46.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Phoenix: 38.1%
vs
Detroit: 36.0%
Blocks (L5)
+19.8% more
Detroit: 5.2
vs
Phoenix: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
113.6
133
PHX Score
116.3
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 36.0
48.3 / 48.7
Assists
27.9 / 27.6
30.0 / 31.0
Blocks
4.2 / 5.2
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 46.4
57.7 / 55.1
Free Throw %
82.3 / 77.7
91.3 / 72.7
Rebounding
42.7 / 43.0
35.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.4 / 8.7
9.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 14.8
19.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
DET
PHX
DET
ML
57%
60-45
55%
64-53
51%
45-43
49%
47-49
ATS
58%
59-43-3
53%
60-54-3
51%
45-43
49%
47-49
TTL
59%
61-42-2
60%
70-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
96-0
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