BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
11-18-4 | Road
1
BOSTON
BRUINSBOS
17-13-4 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Mattias Samuelsson
#23 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Nikita Zadorov
#91 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Samuelsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Nikita Zadorov | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
BRUINS
0%
SABRES
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BOS -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BUF By 1 goal
13.5%
BUF By 2-3 goals
11.2%
BOS By 1 goal
19.6%
BOS By 2-3 goals
27.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
2.23
BUFFALO
Boston
3
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Boston
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bruins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bruins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 1, 2026
BUF @ BOS
4 - 1
Apr 28, 2026
BOS @ BUF
2 - 1
Apr 26, 2026
BUF @ BOS
6 - 1
Apr 23, 2026
BUF @ BOS
3 - 1
Apr 21, 2026
BOS @ BUF
4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+25.0% more
Boston: 6.1
vs
Buffalo: 4.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+16.9% more
Boston: 29.5
vs
Buffalo: 25.2
Hits (L5)
+14.2% more
Boston: 26.3
vs
Buffalo: 23.0
Blocked Shots (L5)
+10.6% more
Boston: 14.6
vs
Buffalo: 13.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
2.2
1
BOS Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.6 / 13.2
15.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
56.2 / 47.1
60.0 / 40.0
Hits
26.3 / 23.0
28.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
8.6 / 8.2
33.3 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
29.5 / 25.2
19.0 / 20.0
Takeaways
6.1 / 4.8
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
BUF
BOS
BUF
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
TTL
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Bruins Look to Fix Special Teams as Senators Come to Town
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…
Kaprizov's Two Goals Propel Wild Past Bruins 4-1
Wild Aim to Stay Perfect at Home Against Bruins; Newcomers Shine…
Peterka's Overtime Heroics Lift Bruins Over Jets in Season Opener