NEW YORK
RANGERSNYR
15-15-1 | Road
3
DALLAS
STARSDAL
19-12-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Igor Shesterkin
#31 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin | None-None | 1.00 | 0.976 | -- |
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 2.08 | 0.931 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
2.08
0.976 Ldr
Save %
0.931
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
100%
STARS
0%
RANGERS
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
NYR By 1 goal
15.9%
NYR By 2-3 goals
15.3%
DAL By 1 goal
18.7%
DAL By 2-3 goals
22.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
2.47
NEW YORK
Dallas
2.79
DALLAS
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Dallas
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stars (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.3
D
Sim
Stars (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 11, 2026
NYR @ DAL
0 - 2
Dec 2, 2025
DAL @ NYR
2 - 3
Jan 7, 2025
DAL @ NYR
5 - 4
Dec 20, 2024
NYR @ DAL
3 - 1
Feb 20, 2024
DAL @ NYR
1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+20.7% more
Dallas: 4.5
vs
New York: 3.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.2% more
Dallas: 33.3
vs
New York: 28.4
Power Play % (L5)
+11.8%
Dallas: 17.6%
vs
New York: 5.8%
Hits (L5)
+63.8% more
New York: 34.2
vs
Dallas: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYR Score
2.5
3
DAL Score
2.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.7 / 12.9
8.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
52.7 / 56.5
42.6 / 57.4
Hits
12.4 / 34.2
13.0 / 28.0
Power Play %
1762.0 / 583.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
33.3 / 28.4
42.0 / 30.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 3.8
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
NYR
DAL
NYR
ML
33%
1-2
80%
4-1
33%
1-2
40%
2-3
ATS
0%
0-3
80%
4-1
33%
1-2
60%
3-2
TTL
100%
3-0
60%
3-2
33%
1-2
60%
3-2
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