INDIANA
PACERSIND
12-15 | Road
120
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
14-11 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
SUNS
0%
PACERS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
IND By 1-7 points
19.6%
IND By 8-14 points
8.9%
PHX By 1-7 points
27.4%
PHX By 8-14 points
22.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
113.23
INDIANA
Phoenix
117.54
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Indiana
107
INDIANA
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.3
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
PHX @ IND
123 - 108
Nov 13, 2025
IND @ PHX
98 - 133
Jan 4, 2025
PHX @ IND
108 - 126
Dec 19, 2024
IND @ PHX
120 - 111
Jan 26, 2024
PHX @ IND
131 - 133
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Phoenix: 42.1%
vs
Indiana: 39.6%
Blocks (L5)
+35.2% more
Indiana: 6.6
vs
Phoenix: 4.3
Turnovers (L5)
+13.7% more
Indiana: 15.0
vs
Phoenix: 12.9
Steals (L5)
+11.4% more
Indiana: 9.1
vs
Phoenix: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
113.2
120
PHX Score
117.5
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.1 / 39.6
30.0 / 39.0
Assists
27.8 / 30.1
28.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.3 / 6.6
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 50.5
48.8 / 43.8
Free Throw %
84.2 / 83.4
78.6 / 83.9
Rebounding
42.0 / 39.9
44.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.1 / 9.1
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 15.0
16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
IND
PHX
IND
ML
57%
60-45
48%
47-50
51%
45-43
54%
45-38
ATS
58%
59-43-3
59%
57-40
51%
45-43
54%
45-38
TTL
59%
61-42-2
54%
52-45
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
Contextual Game News
Haliburton Returns to Hilton Coliseum as Pacers Defeat Timberwol…
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
Phoenix Suns 2026-27 Season Preview: Can Devin Booker and the Re…
JJ Redick Sets Record Straight on Lakers 'Pieces Fit' Comment Af…