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LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

14-12  |  Road

113
FINAL
Thu, Dec 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

13-14  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
LAKERS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.9
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 points (Sacramento)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

24.6%

Kings Cover

75.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -6.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

LAL By 1-7 points

15.5%

LAL By 8-14 points

5.9%

SAC By 1-7 points

26.3%

SAC By 8-14 points

25.2%

AI Model Projected Score
106.12
LOS ANGELES
112.99
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
118
LOS ANGELES
110
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.9
D
Sim Lakers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 SAC @ LAL 104 - 128
Jan 12, 2026 LAL @ SAC 112 - 124
Dec 28, 2025 SAC @ LAL 101 - 125
Oct 26, 2025 LAL @ SAC 127 - 120
Dec 28, 2024 SAC @ LAL 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +23.4% more
Sacramento: 28.9 vs Los Angeles: 23.4
Free Throw % (L5) +10.9%
Sacramento: 85.6% vs Los Angeles: 74.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Sacramento: 36.8% vs Los Angeles: 31.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Sacramento: 48.0% vs Los Angeles: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 106.1 113
SAC Score 113.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 31.2 37.9 / 36.4
Assists 28.9 / 23.4 27.0 / 22.0
Blocks 5.9 / 6.4 6.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 44.9 45.1 / 40.4
Free Throw % 85.6 / 74.7 68.2 / 83.3
Rebounding 44.3 / 44.1 43.0 / 53.0
Steals 9.9 / 9.6 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 18.4 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
LAL
SAC
LAL
ML
55% 55-45
61% 68-43
61% 50-32
54% 49-42
ATS
54% 52-45-3
61% 67-43-1
61% 50-32
54% 49-42
TTL
58% 57-42-1
61% 66-43-2
100% 82-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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