Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Trail Blazers DEN @ POR

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

14-10  |  Road

124
FINAL
Thu, Dec 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

8-18  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
NUGGETS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (Denver)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

77.6%

Trail Blazers Cover

22.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

25.7%

DEN By 8-14 points

25.9%

POR By 1-7 points

14.3%

POR By 8-14 points

5.2%

AI Model Projected Score
119.06
DENVER
111.46
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
112
DENVER
108
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.6
D
Sim Nuggets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 6, 2026 POR @ DEN 132 - 137
Mar 22, 2026 POR @ DEN 112 - 128
Feb 20, 2026 DEN @ POR 157 - 103
Oct 31, 2025 DEN @ POR 107 - 109
Mar 21, 2025 DEN @ POR 109 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.3% more
Denver: 10.6 vs Portland: 6.4
Assists (L5) +23.8% more
Denver: 33.4 vs Portland: 25.4
Rebounding (L5) +12.7% more
Denver: 48.1 vs Portland: 42.0
Turnovers (L5) +12.7% more
Denver: 17.2 vs Portland: 15.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 119.1 124
POR Score 111.5 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 35.2 34.8 / 44.1
Assists 25.4 / 33.4 29.0 / 35.0
Blocks 4.4 / 4.1 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 53.0 46.4 / 54.0
Free Throw % 81.9 / 73.8 83.3 / 71.4
Rebounding 42.0 / 48.1 45.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.4 / 10.6 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 17.2 10.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
DEN
POR
DEN
ML
53% 56-49
54% 57-48
55% 49-40
55% 47-39
ATS
62% 65-39-1
63% 65-38-2
55% 49-40
55% 47-39
TTL
56% 58-46-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 89-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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