OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
16-13-2 | Road
3
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
15-11-6 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Brayden Pachal
#94 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 1.97 | 0.938 | -- |
| Brayden Pachal | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.97
GAA
--
0.938
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
FLAMES
0%
SENATORS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Calgary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)
OTT By 1 goal
15.4%
OTT By 2-3 goals
14.4%
CGY By 1 goal
18.9%
CGY By 2-3 goals
23.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
2.49
OTTAWA
Calgary
2.91
CALGARY
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Calgary
4
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flames
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flames (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Flames (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
OTT @ CGY
4 - 1
Oct 30, 2025
CGY @ OTT
3 - 4
Dec 19, 2024
OTT @ CGY
3 - 2
Nov 25, 2024
CGY @ OTT
3 - 4
Jan 9, 2024
OTT @ CGY
3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+10.1% more
Calgary: 6.6
vs
Ottawa: 6.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+15.6%
Ottawa: 54.0%
vs
Calgary: 38.4%
Hits (L5)
+12.5% more
Ottawa: 23.4
vs
Calgary: 20.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.7% more
Ottawa: 28.3
vs
Calgary: 25.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
2.5
3
CGY Score
2.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.2 / 15.4
9.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
38.4 / 54.0
45.9 / 54.1
Hits
20.5 / 23.4
30.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
9.3 / 9.6
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.9 / 28.3
32.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
6.6 / 6.0
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
OTT
CGY
OTT
ML
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
Dylan Larkin Scores in Return to Red Wings Lineup Amid Trade Req…
Flames Promote Aydar Suniev and Jonathan Castagna to Fill Roster…