WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
21-7-0 | Road
2
CHICAGO
BLACKHAWKSCHI
10-19-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Arvid Soderblom
#40 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 3.04 | 0.870 | -- |
| Arvid Soderblom | None-None | 2.01 | 0.909 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.04
GAA
Ldr 2.01
0.870
Save %
Ldr 0.909
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
BLACKHAWKS
100%
CAPITALS
--
BLACKHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
17.2%
WSH By 2-3 goals
37.4%
CHI By 1 goal
6.3%
CHI By 2-3 goals
3.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.39
WASHINGTON
Chicago
2.34
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Chicago
2
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.1
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 9, 2026
WSH @ CHI
5 - 1
Jan 3, 2026
CHI @ WSH
3 - 2
Apr 4, 2025
CHI @ WSH
3 - 5
Dec 17, 2024
WSH @ CHI
2 - 3
Mar 9, 2024
CHI @ WSH
1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+22.5% more
Washington: 30.0
vs
Chicago: 23.3
Takeaways (L5)
+21.7% more
Washington: 5.4
vs
Chicago: 4.2
Hits (L5)
+12.3% more
Washington: 20.8
vs
Chicago: 18.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+12.0%
Washington: 50.5%
vs
Chicago: 38.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.4
2
CHI Score
2.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.3 / 15.2
13.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
38.5 / 50.5
38.6 / 61.4
Hits
18.2 / 20.8
13.0 / 12.0
Power Play %
3293.0 / 2215.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.3 / 30.0
23.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 5.4
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
WSH
CHI
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
Gavin McKenna Nets First NHL Goal and Assist in Maple Leafs' Ove…