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DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

13-10  |  Road

130
FINAL
Mon, Dec 16 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

13-13  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
NUGGETS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Sacramento)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

46.3%

Kings Cover

53.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

DEN By 1-7 points

24.4%

DEN By 8-14 points

13.8%

SAC By 1-7 points

26.2%

SAC By 8-14 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
117.39
DENVER
118.32
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
120
DENVER
110
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim Nuggets (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 235.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 136 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 SAC @ DEN 128 - 123
Nov 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 122 - 108
Nov 3, 2025 SAC @ DEN 124 - 130
Apr 9, 2025 DEN @ SAC 124 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.7%
Sacramento: 80.9% vs Denver: 73.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Sacramento: 38.1% vs Denver: 35.0%
Turnovers (L5) +40.4% more
Denver: 18.4 vs Sacramento: 10.9
Steals (L5) +13.9% more
Denver: 11.4 vs Sacramento: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 117.4 130
SAC Score 118.3 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 35.0 34.3 / 35.7
Assists 29.3 / 31.1 28.0 / 38.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.1 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 54.4 48.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 80.9 / 73.2 95.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 45.4 / 44.6 42.0 / 55.0
Steals 9.8 / 11.4 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 18.4 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
DEN
SAC
DEN
ML
55% 55-45
54% 57-48
61% 50-32
55% 47-39
ATS
54% 52-45-3
63% 65-38-2
61% 50-32
55% 47-39
TTL
58% 57-42-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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