WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
21-6-0 | Road
1
DALLAS
STARSDAL
18-11-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 3.12 | 0.875 | -- |
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 1.00 | 0.962 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.12
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.875
Save %
Ldr 0.962
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
STARS
100%
CAPITALS
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
17.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
19.1%
DAL By 1 goal
17.3%
DAL By 2-3 goals
18.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.13
WASHINGTON
Dallas
4.09
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim
Stars (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
DAL @ WSH
4 - 1
Oct 28, 2025
WSH @ DAL
0 - 1
Dec 16, 2024
WSH @ DAL
1 - 3
Oct 17, 2024
DAL @ WSH
2 - 3
Jan 27, 2024
WSH @ DAL
4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+32.7% more
Washington: 20.1
vs
Dallas: 13.6
Blocked Shots (L5)
+19.2% more
Washington: 15.8
vs
Dallas: 12.8
Power Play % (L5)
+18.6%
Washington: 33.2%
vs
Dallas: 14.6%
Takeaways (L5)
+21.8% more
Dallas: 5.0
vs
Washington: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.1
1
DAL Score
4.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.8 / 15.8
15.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
57.2 / 51.9
52.3 / 47.7
Hits
13.6 / 20.1
15.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
14.6 / 33.2
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
33.7 / 32.0
24.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 4.1
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
WSH
DAL
WSH
ML
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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