PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
8-17 | Road
109
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
13-11 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
SUNS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
POR By 1-7 points
13.7%
POR By 8-14 points
4.8%
PHX By 1-7 points
25.3%
PHX By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
105.26
PORTLAND
Phoenix
113.29
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Portland
112
PORTLAND
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 218.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
POR @ PHX
114 - 110
Feb 22, 2026
POR @ PHX
92 - 77
Feb 3, 2026
PHX @ POR
130 - 125
Nov 18, 2025
PHX @ POR
127 - 110
Feb 3, 2025
PHX @ POR
119 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+30.5% more
Phoenix: 30.2
vs
Portland: 23.2
Steals (L5)
+28.6% more
Phoenix: 8.6
vs
Portland: 6.7
Blocks (L5)
+19.8% more
Phoenix: 5.4
vs
Portland: 4.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.4%
Phoenix: 44.0%
vs
Portland: 34.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
105.3
109
PHX Score
113.3
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.0 / 34.6
38.5 / 30.6
Assists
30.2 / 23.2
23.0 / 30.0
Blocks
5.4 / 4.5
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 46.9
48.3 / 44.7
Free Throw %
86.8 / 84.3
78.9 / 76.9
Rebounding
40.1 / 38.9
46.0 / 48.0
Steals
8.6 / 6.7
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 16.1
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
POR
PHX
POR
ML
57%
60-45
53%
56-49
51%
45-43
55%
49-40
ATS
58%
59-43-3
62%
65-39-1
51%
45-43
55%
49-40
TTL
59%
61-42-2
56%
58-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
89-0
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