Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Lakers MEM @ LAL

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

18-8  |  Road

110
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 9:30 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

13-12  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

61.0%

Lakers Cover

39.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

27.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

19.8%

LAL By 1-7 points

21.9%

LAL By 8-14 points

11.0%

AI Model Projected Score
117.54
MEMPHIS
114.75
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
104
MEMPHIS
117
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 232.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MEM @ LAL 114 - 120
Jan 2, 2026 MEM @ LAL 121 - 128
Oct 31, 2025 LAL @ MEM 117 - 112
Mar 29, 2025 LAL @ MEM 134 - 127
Dec 15, 2024 MEM @ LAL 110 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.5% more
Memphis: 31.2 vs Los Angeles: 23.6
Steals (L5) +11.9% more
Memphis: 10.7 vs Los Angeles: 9.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
Memphis: 41.4% vs Los Angeles: 32.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
Memphis: 51.0% vs Los Angeles: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 117.5 110
LAL Score 114.8 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 41.4 29.4 / 32.1
Assists 23.6 / 31.2 23.0 / 25.0
Blocks 6.2 / 5.7 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 51.0 47.6 / 39.2
Free Throw % 76.1 / 76.0 71.8 / 83.3
Rebounding 44.2 / 47.8 44.0 / 50.0
Steals 9.4 / 10.7 10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 15.6 23.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
MEM
LAL
MEM
ML
61% 68-43
57% 59-44
54% 49-42
50% 41-41
ATS
61% 67-43-1
63% 65-38
54% 49-42
50% 41-41
TTL
61% 66-43-2
70% 71-31-1
100% 91-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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