PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
13-14-0 | Road
2
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
14-13-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Owen Pickering
#38 | D@
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Pickering | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 1.94 | 0.926 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.94
--
Save %
0.926
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
SENATORS
0%
PENGUINS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
PIT By 1 goal
15.4%
PIT By 2-3 goals
14.3%
OTT By 1 goal
19.0%
OTT By 2-3 goals
23.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.61
PITTSBURGH
Ottawa
3.04
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 26, 2026
PIT @ OTT
4 - 3
Feb 2, 2026
OTT @ PIT
3 - 2
Dec 18, 2025
PIT @ OTT
0 - 4
Mar 30, 2025
OTT @ PIT
0 - 1
Jan 11, 2025
OTT @ PIT
5 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+77.8% more
Ottawa: 23.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.0
Takeaways (L5)
+9.2% more
Ottawa: 6.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.8%
Ottawa: 57.9%
vs
Pittsburgh: 54.1%
Power Play % (L5)
+10.8%
Pittsburgh: 32.3%
vs
Ottawa: 21.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.6
2
OTT Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.2 / 13.9
17.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
57.9 / 54.1
46.0 / 54.0
Hits
23.1 / 13.0
32.0 / 36.0
Power Play %
2151.0 / 3228.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.0 / 28.9
31.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
6.3 / 5.8
7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
PIT
OTT
PIT
ML
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
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