INDIANA
PACERSIND
10-15 | Road
121
PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
7-15 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
76ERS
0%
PACERS
--
76ERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHI -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
IND By 1-7 points
22.9%
IND By 8-14 points
12.0%
PHI By 1-7 points
26.9%
PHI By 8-14 points
18.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
106.33
INDIANA
Philadelphia
108.43
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Indiana
107
INDIANA
Philadelphia
113
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
76ers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
76ers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
76ers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.1
D
Sim
76ers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 214.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
PHI @ IND
105 - 94
Feb 24, 2026
PHI @ IND
135 - 114
Jan 19, 2026
IND @ PHI
104 - 113
Dec 12, 2025
IND @ PHI
105 - 115
Mar 14, 2025
IND @ PHI
112 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+18.0% more
Philadelphia: 43.6
vs
Indiana: 36.9
Steals (L5)
+10.5% more
Philadelphia: 9.3
vs
Indiana: 8.5
Blocks (L5)
+44.7% more
Indiana: 6.2
vs
Philadelphia: 3.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.9%
Indiana: 39.1%
vs
Philadelphia: 30.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
106.3
121
PHI Score
108.4
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.2 / 39.1
40.0 / 36.8
Assists
23.5 / 25.4
18.0 / 35.0
Blocks
3.4 / 6.2
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 49.9
43.5 / 51.6
Free Throw %
78.3 / 83.8
71.9 / 76.5
Rebounding
43.6 / 36.9
47.0 / 41.0
Steals
9.3 / 8.5
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 15.9
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
IND
PHI
IND
ML
63%
69-40
48%
47-50
48%
45-48
54%
45-38
ATS
65%
71-38
59%
57-40
48%
45-48
54%
45-38
TTL
55%
60-49
54%
52-45
100%
93-0
100%
83-0
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