Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Cardinals NE @ ARI

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

3-10  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 4:25 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

6-7  |  Home

30
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Jesse Luketa

#42 | Linebacker
@
Chad Ryland
KEY GAME

Chad Ryland

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Jesse Luketa None-None
Chad Ryland None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
26%
📊
CARDINALS
74%
PATRIOTS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (New England)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 CardinalsARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

60.6%

Cardinals Cover

39.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NE -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

NE By 1-6 points

17.0%

NE By 7-13 points

17.9%

ARI By 1-6 points

14.9%

ARI By 7-13 points

12.3%

AI Model Projected Score
19.97
NEW ENGLAND
16.19
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
24
NEW ENGLAND
20
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Loss
26% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.8
C
Sim Patriots (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 15, 2024 NE @ ARI 17 - 30
Dec 12, 2022 NE @ ARI 27 - 13
Nov 29, 2020 ARI @ NE 17 - 20
Sep 11, 2016 NE @ ARI 23 - 21
Sep 16, 2012 ARI @ NE 20 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.3% more
Arizona: 234.8 vs New England: 205.5
First Downs (L5) +8.5% more
Arizona: 21.4 vs New England: 19.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 20.0 17
ARI Score 16.2 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 19.7 21.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 234.8 / 205.5 232.0 / 195.0
Rushing Yards 127.3 / 138.0 163.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 362.2 / 343.5 395.0 / 311.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.3 6.2 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
NE
ARI
NE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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