TAMPA BAY
BUCCANEERSTB
7-6 | Road
40
LOS ANGELES
CHARGERSLAC
8-5 | Home
17
Key Game
KEY GAME
Chase McLaughlin
#4 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
JK Scott
#16 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Chase McLaughlin | None-None |
| JK Scott | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
42%
CHARGERS
58%
BUCCANEERS
--
CHARGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TB -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-6 points
16.7%
TB By 7-13 points
16.0%
LAC By 1-6 points
16.2%
LAC By 7-13 points
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
23.3
TAMPA BAY
Los Angeles
22.45
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
TAMPA BAY
Los Angeles
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Buccaneers
Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Buccaneers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim
Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 45.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 15, 2024
TB @ LAC
40 - 17
Oct 4, 2020
LAC @ TB
31 - 38
Dec 4, 2016
TB @ LAC
28 - 21
Nov 11, 2012
LAC @ TB
24 - 34
Dec 21, 2008
LAC @ TB
41 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+80.3% more
Tampa Bay: 1.9
vs
Los Angeles: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5)
+41.8% more
Tampa Bay: 161.7
vs
Los Angeles: 94.2
Total Yards (L5)
+28.6% more
Tampa Bay: 403.5
vs
Los Angeles: 288.1
First Downs (L5)
+22.0% more
Tampa Bay: 22.8
vs
Los Angeles: 17.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
23.3
40
LAC Score
22.5
17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.8 / 22.8
14.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards
193.9 / 241.8
174.0 / 283.0
Rushing Yards
94.2 / 161.7
32.0 / 223.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.6
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards
288.1 / 403.5
206.0 / 506.0
Turnovers
0.4 / 1.9
2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play
5.1 / 6.3
4.3 / 7.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -5.9
LAC
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -9.8
ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -5.9
LAC
0-3-1
(0.0%)
Margin: -9.8
ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.3
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
TB
LAC
TB
ML
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
100%
4-0
ATS
33%
1-2-1
33%
1-2-1
0%
0-3-1
100%
3-0-1
TTL
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
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