TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
7-18 | Road
104
MIAMI
HEATMIA
12-10 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
HEAT
0%
RAPTORS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -9.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
TOR By 1-7 points
12.0%
TOR By 8-14 points
3.9%
MIA By 1-7 points
24.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
26.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
107.2
TORONTO
Miami
116.33
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Toronto
112
TORONTO
Miami
116
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.1
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 9, 2026
MIA @ TOR
114 - 128
Apr 7, 2026
MIA @ TOR
95 - 121
Dec 23, 2025
TOR @ MIA
112 - 91
Dec 15, 2025
TOR @ MIA
106 - 96
Feb 21, 2025
MIA @ TOR
120 - 111
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.2%
Miami: 40.6%
vs
Toronto: 35.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Miami: 48.4%
vs
Toronto: 45.7%
Turnovers (L5)
+18.2% more
Toronto: 15.5
vs
Miami: 12.7
Blocks (L5)
+14.7% more
Toronto: 4.3
vs
Miami: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
107.2
104
MIA Score
116.3
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 35.4
40.6 / 34.4
Assists
29.4 / 28.3
21.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.3
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 45.7
48.2 / 44.6
Free Throw %
82.2 / 81.8
65.6 / 73.3
Rebounding
45.2 / 46.9
52.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.4 / 7.1
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 15.5
17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TOR
MIA
TOR
ML
48%
46-50
55%
57-47
59%
48-34
55%
48-39
ATS
51%
49-47
61%
62-40-2
59%
48-34
55%
48-39
TTL
59%
57-39
60%
62-42
100%
82-0
100%
87-0
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