CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
6-17 | Road
113
INDIANA
PACERSIND
10-14 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
PACERS
0%
HORNETS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
CHA By 1-7 points
20.0%
CHA By 8-14 points
9.2%
IND By 1-7 points
27.4%
IND By 8-14 points
21.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
107.31
CHARLOTTE
Indiana
111.4
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Charlotte
109
CHARLOTTE
Indiana
116
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 218.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
IND @ CHA
108 - 129
Feb 26, 2026
CHA @ IND
133 - 109
Jan 8, 2026
IND @ CHA
114 - 112
Nov 19, 2025
CHA @ IND
118 - 127
Apr 2, 2025
CHA @ IND
105 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.6% more
Indiana: 8.2
vs
Charlotte: 6.3
Blocks (L5)
+24.2% more
Indiana: 5.8
vs
Charlotte: 4.7
Assists (L5)
+15.6% more
Indiana: 26.5
vs
Charlotte: 23.0
Turnovers (L5)
+13.0% more
Indiana: 15.4
vs
Charlotte: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
107.3
113
IND Score
111.4
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.0 / 34.0
33.3 / 48.3
Assists
26.5 / 23.0
23.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.8 / 4.7
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 42.6
51.2 / 51.3
Free Throw %
82.3 / 77.2
86.7 / 73.1
Rebounding
40.9 / 41.3
29.0 / 45.0
Steals
8.2 / 6.3
9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 13.6
17.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CHA
IND
CHA
ML
48%
47-50
61%
60-39
54%
45-38
48%
40-44
ATS
59%
57-40
60%
59-40
54%
45-38
48%
40-44
TTL
54%
52-45
58%
57-42
100%
83-0
100%
84-0
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