DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
11-10 | Road
141
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
13-11 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
HAWKS
100%
NUGGETS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.2
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.2 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -6.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
26.7%
DEN By 8-14 points
24.5%
ATL By 1-7 points
16.5%
ATL By 8-14 points
6.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
119.26
DENVER
Atlanta
113.02
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Denver
117
DENVER
Atlanta
123
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.2
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 9, 2026
ATL @ DEN
110 - 87
Dec 5, 2025
DEN @ ATL
134 - 133
Jan 1, 2025
ATL @ DEN
120 - 139
Dec 8, 2024
DEN @ ATL
141 - 111
Apr 6, 2024
ATL @ DEN
110 - 142
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+9.4% more
Denver: 5.2
vs
Atlanta: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Denver: 50.1%
vs
Atlanta: 48.3%
Turnovers (L5)
+14.7% more
Atlanta: 17.0
vs
Denver: 14.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.6%
Atlanta: 81.9%
vs
Denver: 68.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
119.3
141
ATL Score
113.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 30.7
22.5 / 44.4
Assists
33.5 / 31.1
26.0 / 43.0
Blocks
4.7 / 5.2
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 50.1
40.6 / 62.9
Free Throw %
81.9 / 68.3
74.1 / 70.8
Rebounding
50.1 / 44.4
45.0 / 43.0
Steals
11.2 / 9.9
12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
17.0 / 14.8
12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
DEN
ATL
DEN
ML
50%
52-52
54%
57-48
55%
48-40
55%
47-39
ATS
53%
55-48-1
63%
65-38-2
55%
48-40
55%
47-39
TTL
53%
55-48-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
88-0
100%
86-0
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