CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
21-3 | Road
113
MIAMI
HEATMIA
11-10 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
HEAT
0%
CAVALIERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.8
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.8 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -6.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CLE By 1-7 points
15.6%
CLE By 8-14 points
6.0%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
25.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
114.11
CLEVELAND
Miami
120.92
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Cleveland
104
CLEVELAND
Miami
110
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.8
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 214.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 27, 2026
MIA @ CLE
128 - 149
Mar 25, 2026
MIA @ CLE
120 - 103
Nov 12, 2025
CLE @ MIA
130 - 116
Nov 10, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 140
Apr 28, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+13.3% more
Miami: 9.0
vs
Cleveland: 8.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.0%
Miami: 77.1%
vs
Cleveland: 72.1%
Blocks (L5)
+24.7% more
Cleveland: 4.6
vs
Miami: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
114.1
113
MIA Score
120.9
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.3 / 39.1
43.2 / 42.4
Assists
30.6 / 28.4
27.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.5 / 4.6
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 49.0
47.7 / 47.7
Free Throw %
77.1 / 72.1
92.3 / 94.4
Rebounding
44.2 / 45.8
47.0 / 36.0
Steals
9.0 / 8.0
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 13.8
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CLE
MIA
CLE
ML
48%
46-50
60%
69-46
59%
48-34
56%
55-44
ATS
51%
49-47
67%
75-37-3
59%
48-34
56%
55-44
TTL
59%
57-39
59%
68-47
100%
82-0
100%
99-0
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