CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
13-9-0 | Road
2
DALLAS
STARSDAL
16-10-0 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 6.00 | 0.786 | -- |
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 2.01 | 0.935 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
6.00
GAA
Ldr 2.01
0.786
Save %
Ldr 0.935
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
STARS
0%
FLAMES
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
CGY By 1 goal
15.4%
CGY By 2-3 goals
14.3%
DAL By 1 goal
19.0%
DAL By 2-3 goals
23.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Calgary
2.49
CALGARY
Dallas
2.92
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Calgary
3
CALGARY
Dallas
5
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stars (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Stars (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
CGY @ DAL
3 - 4
Mar 3, 2026
DAL @ CGY
6 - 1
Nov 22, 2025
DAL @ CGY
2 - 3
Mar 27, 2025
DAL @ CGY
5 - 2
Mar 6, 2025
CGY @ DAL
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+13.5% more
Dallas: 14.4
vs
Calgary: 12.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.0%
Dallas: 50.6%
vs
Calgary: 48.7%
Hits (L5)
+31.1% more
Calgary: 19.3
vs
Dallas: 13.3
Takeaways (L5)
+26.9% more
Calgary: 7.9
vs
Dallas: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CGY Score
2.5
2
DAL Score
2.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.4 / 12.7
17.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
50.6 / 48.7
52.5 / 47.5
Hits
13.3 / 19.3
11.0 / 32.0
Power Play %
2127.0 / 3294.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
31.0 / 31.4
28.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
5.8 / 7.9
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
CGY
DAL
CGY
ML
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
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